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我还看了他的关于G/U的分析，后面部分似乎讲的是道琼斯工业平均指数的分析
As far as the Pound goes, there are a number of fundamental factors that suggest the U.K. economy is in for a bit of a rough patch. I’ll be happy to get into that in a later post if you wish, but for now, let’s go back to what was mentioned about the BoE’s target rate. It’s above the rate of inflation and it’s very likely to remain that way. The BoE is simply not going to have the opportunity to obtain real, effective interest rates at or even near 0 as the economy slows because of the commodity inflation.
GBP/USD is showing the exact opposite on the charts as is the DXY (I’m showing this with the iPath GBP/USD ETN, but it’s on the forex charts as well). It’s made a bearish Double Stochastic Overbought:
On the chart above we see the second overbought price is at a level that’s lower than where the previous overbought was, indicating the market still sees price as relatively overvalued even though it’s below where price was previously considered to be too high. I could show you a number of instances where Double Stochastics have been an incredibly accurate indication, but I’ll leave you with the one I find the most fascinating.
For decades, the DOW Transportation index has been considered a leading indicator for the overall market. Charles Dow himself saw it that way. On the chart below, the DOW Transportation index has made a DS OS. That’s a bullish indication and we see that price has risen since there.
But guess the date the DS OS was made (think about it before I tell you). The DS OS on the DOW Transportation index was made on March 10, the lowest closing price during the downturn, the exact bottom of the DJIA (and S&P 500) markets!
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狗仔卡
发表于 2008-5-29 01:57:03
显身卡
楼主
